Future of Egypt
Future of Egypt
So far it was a case of ‘internal issue’ with a friend & neighbor but now it’s really getting serious.
WHY CONCERN :
1. Egypt is at a pivotal position in Middle East; strategically, socially and militarily.
2. The Suez Canal channels about 10% of world seaways business and is a critical link between north & south. Any adventure or blockade of this may worsen economic recovery of many European countries (already in doldrums)
3. Per a political analyst, its déjà vu case of what happened 40 years earlier in ME (Iran). And if power shifts to extremists, world political equations are going to change forever, not necessarily for good.
4. Crude Oil is shoring above 100 USD per Barrel resulting more pressure to already depressed economies of the world. Inflation is flaring up and in nutshell what’s happening in Misr is affecting all of us.
5. Egypt is a friendly country to many of us and anything adverse happening at friend’s place is a matter of concern. For me, it’s long standing friendship from days of “Nasser-Nehru-Tito” and Non Aligned Movement of 50’s.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN :
1. Mubarak will eventually step down, flee to a safer place and some new regime will take place.
2. Another chance, feeble though, is that Mubarak may crush this revolution, like ‘Tiananmen square’ in China.
3. “Tunisia effect” will creep in to other countries, probably Yemen and Jordon are immediate targets. No one knows the final outcome of this POLITIICAL TSUNAMI. It may even change the world political scenario like in 40’s & 50’s major changes across the Globe.
4. My wish: Egypt gets a real time democratic system in place with people having right to select, amongst themselves, their government.
While sympathizing with my friends in Egypt, we would like to tell them, Friends we are with you.
PS : Note to Al Jazeera - Not good to ignite fire or be happy when your neighbors’ house is burning, eventually you get spark of it too, if not, you’ll feel the heat.
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