Fitch affirms Qatar's credit rating at AA amid expectations of strong economic recovery in 2027 and 2028

Fitch has maintained Qatar's long-term sovereign rating at a high AA level, reflecting its confidence in the resilience of the Qatari economy.

The agency attributed its decision to the decline in risks as the threats facing LNG facilities receded, and the Qatari economy is likely to witness a strong recovery with the return of gas exports and the start of additional production from the North Field expansion, pushing growth towards double-digit rates in 2028, following a significant increase in production capacity from 2027.

Fitch predicted that the state budget will achieve a surplus by 2027 that will widen further the following year, supported by the launch of the US "Golden Pass" facility, noting that the banking sector has shown remarkable resilience despite regional conditions.

Qatar has one of the highest per capita income rates in the world and huge sovereign assets, expecting to reach a net of about 254.2% of GDP by the end of 2026, with the country remaining a net external creditor, in addition to obtaining a high governance rating globally and a record of more than 20 years without any debt restructuring.

QatarEnergy is currently implementing the Northeast Field project to increase its current LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 110 million tonnes per annum, which is the first phase of Qatar's plan to expand LNG production.

The North South Field Project, which is the second phase of the state's plan in this regard, will contribute to increasing the production capacity of LNG from 110 million tons per year to 126 million tons per year.

At the end of March, QatarEnergy announced that the Golden Pass LNG project, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, had achieved a significant milestone towards the full operation of its production and export facilities with the first of three production lines with a total capacity of 18 million tonnes per annum.

In May, Standard & Poor's and Moody's confirmed Qatar's sovereign credit rating at AA and Aa2, respectively, with a stable outlook, noting that the country's large financial assets would mitigate the repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

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