QNB Says AI Brings Opportunity And Disruption To Emerging Markets

Artificial intelligence presents emerging markets with major opportunities as well as serious risks, Qatar National Bank said in its weekly economic commentary.

QNB said emerging economies must act decisively in three areas to benefit from AI: building digital infrastructure, developing data ecosystems and investing in skills. Countries that strengthen these foundations early will be better placed to use AI to accelerate growth, while those that delay may see the gap with the technological frontier widen.

Citing UN Trade and Development projections, QNB said the global AI market could grow approximately 25-fold from USD 189 billion in 2023 to USD 4.8 trillion by 2033. While advanced economies are expected to gain significantly from AI-driven productivity improvements, the impact on emerging markets is more complex.

According to the report, AI could accelerate development, improve public services and help countries overcome shortages of skilled workers and limitations in infrastructure. Potential applications include AI-supported translation and personalised education, diagnostic assistance that could extend healthcare services to rural areas, and credit scoring that could improve access to finance for small producers and entrepreneurs.

QNB noted that emerging markets exported more than USD 1 trillion in digitally deliverable services in 2024. If used effectively, AI could strengthen this momentum and support the creation of new industries.

At the same time, the bank warned that AI could disrupt labour markets and weaken the low-cost labour advantage on which many emerging economies have relied. The International Monetary Fund estimates that around 40 per cent of jobs in emerging markets are exposed to AI, particularly in sectors involving routine and repetitive work.

QNB said generative AI and AI agents can already perform basic cognitive tasks, data processing and billing at a lower cost than overseas staff in some cases. It pointed to India’s USD 300 billion IT outsourcing industry, where junior developer and business-process outsourcing roles are particularly exposed. The report also noted that India’s Nifty IT index had fallen by around 15 per cent during the year, while the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index had gained 20 per cent.

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