UN warns global warming will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C climate threshold

Global warming is expected to exceed previous estimates, with average temperatures expected to rise, in the most optimistic probability, to between 1.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, a United Nations report has revealed.

According to today's report, despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries, "urgent and drastic" reductions are needed to achieve the best possible results.

The report said greenhouse gas emissions should fall by 18 percent from 2025 levels by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040.

Current national plans limit emissions to only 5 to 8 percent by 2030, and between 11 and 15 percent by 2035.

The report predicted that the Earth would warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6 degrees Celsius if countries fully implement their current climate commitments, and the two estimates are higher than last year's projections, reflecting the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.

As countries prepare for the next round of climate talks in Turkey, within the 31st Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP31), UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "It is essential not to abandon efforts to reduce emissions that fuel floods, fires and other natural disasters." The Century".

Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries agreed to try to keep the average temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to seek to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

As it becomes increasingly difficult to avoid this threshold, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said the "minimum possible exceedance" scenario offers a nearly 50 per cent chance of temperatures returning to 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100.

As for the climate plans presented since last year, the report noted that there has been little change in future global warming projections, and that a return to 1.5 degrees Celsius will depend on large-scale decarbonization, which remains uncertain.

---

About Qatar Living:

Since 2005, Qatar Living has been the trusted destination for everything Qatar. As the country's largest online community and marketplace, Qatar Living connects people with opportunities through jobs, property, vehicles, services, classifieds, events, local insights, and breaking news. Trusted by residents, newcomers, visitors, and businesses alike, Qatar Living brings Qatar together in one place.

Instagram - @qatarliving

X - @qatarliving

Facebook - Qatar Living

YouTube - qatarlivingofficial